Submitted by john-q

If the RIAA is able to stop P2P file sharing or significantly curtail its use, several industries will suffer economic hardship.

There has been much discussion of late about how our politicians seem to be on the side of the entertainment industry and (with a few exceptions) are largely ignoring consumer rights and privacy concerns. One major issue that they've overlooked is the negative economic impact the end of P2P services will have on several industries.

We'll start with the broadband industry itself.

Napster and Kazaa would never have gotten popular without cable and DSL. As consumers became educated about P2P, they realized that they had to have much faster connections. As a result, their use has soared, resulting in large profits in the broadband industry. Many consumers justify the added expense of broadband by factoring in the value of the files they receive through P2P. Without that justification, many will revert back to cheaper, slower services that are adequate for general internet uses. Not only will the growth in broadband subscribers slow, significant losses in subscriptions will likely occur, causing a catastrophe throughout the entire industry.

Onother areas that'll feel the pain are the PC and related hardware industries. Before P2P, very few people ever needed more than a 20GB Hard Drive. These days, consumers are demanding larger and larger hard drives and buying them. Without P2P, many consumers will postpone that computer upgrade or that portable memory device purchase. The industry, already feeling the pain of a slowing economy, will certainly suffer significant sales losses.

Another victim will be all the portable and in-car mp3 player manufacturers. Without music to download, the sales in these will plummet.

Amazingly these unintended consequences of the RIAA's actions have been ignored by both the mainstream media and the politicians.

Ironically, several corporations with ties to the RIAA are will suffer, as they also have financial interests in the industries mentioned above, and will suffer losses outweighing any gain that the recording industry would receive.

very true, sony for one will be loosing alot of entertainment revenue from both hardware and from music, if i'm not buyint their CDs, will make no money there, if i'm not buying their CD burners or in dash MP3 CD players or portable MP3 Cd players or reg MP3 players or anything else of that nature, they are loosing money on both sides, and wondering whats happening

United WE stand

Here's a link to the amazon ad for the Sony Atrac CD Walkman. Take the br tag off the end, if it doesn't work.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/tg/feature/-/476697/ref%3Dbr%5Fbx%5F1%5F1/202-2554296-2357438

"Store up to 30 CDs on one disc."

Now, of course, Sony wouldn't want you to fill those discs with music you don't own. *wink, wink, say no more, say no more*

Never mind, these darn links don't work half the time. Just go to amazon and look up the guide for the "Sony Atrac CD Walkman".

here's what's going on today http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/internetprivacy/2003-09-16-riaa_x.htm

All of this chaos in the name of trying to cram cheap boring overpriced CD's to consumers like its going to work.

Just shows you again how short sighted and fucking stupid these people are.

I think we should be boycotting anything with the Sony name on it right now anyway.

i posted along time ago that if we got together and warned the high speed internet providers that if they didnt lobby for getting rid of the constraints that the riaa was using on us that we would include them in the boycott that light a fire under them to do more than just give our info out at the first sign of trouble (verizon not included) are you listening comcast

Amen 1953GM. I think we need to add a big-time Time Warner/Turner to that list too. I've seen the Antichrist and his name is Ted Turner.

atrac huh?.... encoding at lower bitrates with more fidelity than higher encoded mp3s? hmmmmm......

with all the negative media the riaa has been getting, it loks like the polititians are doing an abot face on their sue them all campaign. compmore: the issues that will be brought to the table on capital hiil will be a swift kick in th riaa's buts. privacy will prevail and the riaa will have to work even harder to try to sue us all. keep up the fight all, we have our rights. down with the riaa!

john-q
VERY good article, and this points out something that SHOULD motivate more groups with power and money to get behind our movement. How many people are going to continue paying 40-50 bucks a month for DSL or Cable just to load webpages quicker? Downloading of all kinds of large files has driven the move to broadband. And, as apple iPods and other portable MP3 players become more popular, the content is going to come from somewhere, and if most people find the online sales providers not to be a good source for all the different songs they want, people will continue to seek online music from P2P networks. Great article and some good, thought provoking points!

~code

~Quote~
I think we need to add a big-time Time Warner/Turner to that list too. I've seen the Antichrist and his name is Ted Turner.
~Quote~

Ted Turner the Antichrist... has a ring to it...

It's absolutely true though. Without p2p and file sharing Sony and similar companies go down zee drain... flushed.

So good work john-q.

Gaming is just about the only thing that Need Broadband. Large patch files and need for low pings. Beyond that 56k is sluggish but worth the price of slow if there are no large files to download. Free ad based ISPs. Others as low as 10 bucks a month. Its hard to justify 5 times that without a good reason.

I'm sure the RIAA would love to kill MP3 players. They already tried it. Sure all those people would be "Loosing their lifelyhoods" but that dosn't matter. As long as the music lables profit no one else has to. They have the "Right to Profit" after all. Sure no one else in all of history has had that right but they do. Where as most have to earn their money they will just take it from the young, old, and everyone inbetween. Oh and all in the name of justice.

I must admit...a lot of my stuff's Sony. My stereo, telephone, alarm clock (that my ex has now), and my CD-RW that I burn all my compilations with. But I don't buy blank Sony CD-R discs anymore.

Also check out the article from the same link by compmore above. The article is called "Pirates are Purchasers_Study: downloaders buy often".

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/world/2003-09-17-europe-downloaders_x.htm

I'm a new boy-cotter. I've been named in the suit! But as an above average consumer of cd's, concert tickets, etc. I had withdrawl this weekend when I couldn't pick up a cd while out shopping... an old habbit that will be hard to break. What's more is that the RIAA has its slimy fingers in everything!! I couldn't even pick up the DVD "Baby Einsteen" for my neighbor's baby's birthday because Disney produced it and I've read Disney is a part of the conglomerate. My point?? A lot more than broadband and Sony will be affected!!

Unintended by the actions of the RIAA? That's bullshit!!! The RIAA wanted to kill MP3 players from the very begginning!!!

It is true that cable and DSL companies will lose a lot of their ustomers if P2P is killed off. But P2P will very unlikely be killed off unless politicians pass some insane laws. People pay enough as it is for broadband connection that they think they should be able to freely trade music. Paying for downloading songs in addition to the cost for your Internet connection is way too much because people wouldn't pay for a broadband connection if they can't get unlimited access to free music with it.

Hey Tjspisssed: You've been named in the RIAA's lawsuits? What do you intend to do?

Sorry, I should be clearer on that: are you gonna fight it or settle if it comes down to it?

Do you think most current politicians are on the entertainment industry's side? We knew that they were when Clinton was in office when the FASCIST DMCA(Digital Millenium Copyright Act) and NET(No Electronic Theft act) were passed. What about now with Bush in office. I have heard of some that are on the Entertainment industry's side, and some that aren't. Those two laws from hell were passed when Clinton was in office, so he is a big part of the blame for the RIAA's current actions. I have heard of proposed laws by certain politicians that would be as bad or worse, but I've never heard of any of them passing? It would have to be Bush to sign them even if Congress did pass some of them. Do you think he would? I don't think Bush is the same Hollywood liberal that Clinton was?

ILUVELPEES,

I'm not sure. My thoughts change daily. There are no good answers. It's a lose-lose for both sides. I now have a bad flavor for the industry. I'm reading everything I can find for answers but there seems to only be opinions, no answers. I'm open to suggestions...so readers, what do you suggest??

Broadband, as far as I see it, is the basis for the paperless society. It's the medium for shopping for necessities as well as luxuries. I've heard for years about the future of mankind and how integrated our lives will be with computers. We as a society of advancing technology have begun to accept and integrate some of the more useful technologies available to us: cell phones, the Internet and to some degree we are beginning to shun the cold heartlessness of reality.

However as stated, much of this comes at a luxury price - one that needs to be justified. Culturally, the Internet has united people from different nations; social and cutural barriers have been broken. As a unified body, technophiles far out-class the neophites that govern our nations. We are breaking barries that they do not want broken and in some cases that means that their propaganda machines are becoming ineffective. How can you hate when you know the truth?

Decreeing that the use of P2P is a criminal offense would greatly curtail the technological advancement of society. Technology, as long as it's profitable, will continue without society (through the militiary's demands), however if the goal of society is world peace then the logical means is by sharing what we have. In essence, the creation of a class-less society where everyone shares and recieves and there is no one without. That doesn't require socialism, goverenments can rule as they wish but the people of nations need not hate or fear because one nation has and they do not, nor need bear arms over differing idiologies since these things could be debated openly. A Utopean goal, yet achievable if we were not bound and gagged by short-sighted, small-minded, draconian powermongers. I am of the opinion that our government and it's representatives are not working for the people, instead they seek to control and mute the progress of society so they are not left behind. Will we need then when society is united? That is a question that festers in their minds. It is better (for them) to destroy the source of that thought than to embrace it.

P2P is the basis of sharing and cooperation, a foundation for society to build upon. There is no profit in sharing nor can it be controlled - yet if government and big businesses are to remain in control p2p must be castrated.

Tjs: I suggest you talk to Bill Evans on this site or go over to EFF.org and talk to some folks overs there. I think they may have some pointers for you.

Also, I think you should fight this thing, but I am not in your shoes and know nothing about your b/ground or financial situation, so I (probably as most here)am not qualified to give you advice like this. Did you get an attorney yet?

TJ I too would say fight them, but again this is what I would do, however I have no children, I also have nothing but time on my hands to fight, if I am ever named in their suit. However only you know what is going on in your life. I suspect those who do fight might be in for a long haul. So you "HAVE" to do what is right for you.

Eliminating P2P would cause MP3s to be somewhat 'obsolete'. and look at the ppls who make blank media (cds, tapes etc.) they are gonna suffer this too. should big corporations be pushed around by a small but bloated organization? hell no. go ahead RIAA, crash the economy then you'll get your maggot asses thrown in jail ya freakin' pricks.

And Broadband use is increasing. its today's popular connection. however, most of these broadband users (i'd say 50-80%) use their cable/dsl to download some ICP tracks off of Kazaa. well if RIAA is gonna shut down P2P they might as well shut down the 1000s of americans who use broadband as well.

Burn In Hell RIAA!

tjspissed

Follow ILUVELPEES advice and contact bill evans. He will give you good advice.

Thanks for the advice guys. I've talked to the EFF. I'll contact Bill. -TJ

Not to be an antagonist, but there are many other things like online gaming, movies, and straming music that might keep people on broadband. There will probably be a small reduction in users but none that will seriously hurt the industry.

However, good article.

Keep um comin.

Hail Mp3!!!

EXTREMELY TRUE!!!! its like, who the hell has 10 thousand dollars in their pocket these days????? if bush cared so much about the economy then he wouldnt go along w/ the riaa. hed stop them

If p2p goes..so will my cable. I absolutly got cable to use p2p more efficiently. I have no prob going back to 56k

tjspissed- please don't make any statements to the press, or public postings concerning the facts of your case until you talk to legal counsel, for your own legal protection.
The EFF is one good place, and also,
there's subpoenadefense.org .
~code

I've mentioned this before, several times, Sony in particular, but also AOL/Time/Warner. Notice that only 1 subpoena has been sent to AOL? Why would Warner want to sue their own customers? Hm.....likewise, Sony with the hardware they're promoting.

I agree, the only real reason I have broadband is for the speed in downloading files. Granted, many of those are updates to software....I mean, who really wants to download SP1 for XP on a dialup? It'll take days. But that's a rare occurance. Most files can easily be downloaded over a dialup, it'll just take more time, and in alot of cases, not enough more to justify double to triple the cost. Make MP3's illegal, or at best expensive, you'll pretty much kill the market for portable players. Same concept, who wants to pay 140 bucks for a cd player that does MP3's if you can't download them? The $60 model will work just fine, then. Apple charges $500 for the top of the line iPod. Buying MP3's through the Apple store will cost you $7500 or better to fill the hard drive in that unit. Um........no thanks. DVD burner? Why bother? I can't burn backups of movies. Hard drives, as stated.....why the heck would I need a couple of 250gb drives, when I'll never fill even a 60gb with my current load of software? Can't burn my cd's to backup, so I don't need the space.

Online gaming is a very very small part of broadband usage, and hasn't really grown all that much since the advent of broadband. I don't play games that much, so I'm not paying for that. Movies and streaming music? Not if I can't listen without paying first. I don't have a credit card, don't want one, and I still have radio.

Ah well. The RIAA has proven what a bunch of clueless losers they are, and the public is finally waking up, even to the point of the media slamming the whole sue-em-all campaign.

This article sums it up perfectly!!
toledoblade.com [opinion page]

Let's simplyify this.. If P2P is shut down or impeded in anyways whatsoever... The RIAA can kiss my cd money goodbye because i will vow to never ever ever buy a cd again for as long as i live.. actually.. i think i already did...

I posted a few weeks ago about the possible financial implications for the companies involved with the RIAA and I put my money where my mouth is,,I no longer own any shares of Sony and Time Warner in my portfolio

Hey dowjones, you just lost your power to say anything about the RIAA by selling your stock. As a share holder you can put forward motions (like getting out of the RIAA) that go into proxies that would be voted on by every shareholder. You could also go to the board meetings and question management about their membership in the RIAA.

Hey tjspissed, sorry about your luck. You must first decide weather you can fight this at all. Lawyers fees are around $150/hour, how long can you afford that. No doubt the RIAA has run a credit check on you and investigated how much you earn. Do you have homeowners or liability insurance? The insurance lawyers may be able to settle for you. Settlement may be your only option. You may also approach the ACLU about privacy issues, or send letters to your congressman complaining of thuggery of the RIAA. Tech TV may be interested in your story if you contact them. The RIAA cockroaches may not like the light shown on them and may settle foe low $$$. There may be someone else I did not mention, Bill Evans is a good resource. I have been disappointed in the EFF as they have chosen not to represent anyone as of yet.

TJ

My friend made a good suggestion the other night. She said that if I were sued, I should go up to the courthouse with a truckload of my CD's, LP's, etc.
After thinking about that, I realized that I should also make a list of all of the music I had ever owned, including the vinyl and tape-based media. I started listening to music seriously when I was 3 years old (in 1953), and bought my first new record in 1958 (The Witchdoctor, by David Seville).
I used to wait for the Jukebox man to come every week, so I could buy the records he removed, that were no longer being played enough.
That first David Seville record has long since disappeared, of course, but I paid for the license (I know it was only 15 or 19 cents, but adjust that for inflation, since '58, and see what happens), and have no shame whatsoever in finding a reasonable copy, after exhaustive searching, and downloading it. That goes for Polka Dot Bikini and hundreds of other unavailable titles.
Add to that the hundreds of dollars I have wasted on albums that contain "album cuts", sold as original "single cuts"; "live cuts", snuck in and used as "studio cuts"; the same song being used MORE THAN ONCE on different albums by the same artist; remakes done by artists THIRTY YEARS LATER, BUT SOLD AS THE ORIGINALS; the Jan & Dean album sung off-key by a couple of German dudes; LP's that got progressively cheaper every year, until the quality noticeably degraded after the first play (even on my extremely expensive turntable and feather-light cartridge), and I think the RIAA should be hiding its head in shame, and embracing a totally digital distribution system, where the buyer does the selecting and compiling. And I'm not talking about 320 MP3's. I'm talking about DRM-free Analog or WAV files. They won't do it, and it is just as well. We need to bypass them and buy directly from the artists. This will happen. It is inevitable. Just as one day replicators will create physical goods out of quarks, so will the RIAA fade into history with other monopolies.
Guess I got a little long-winded, but I couldn't find a link to post an article on this site, so I guess here it is.
Hang in there. I know what stress is like, believe me. Keep focused on the future, and try to compartmentalize this problem, so it doesn't consume your every thought.

The Kid.

To the Kid: AMEN!

Thank you.

Replicators? Not likely. They are possible, yes, but would be so expensive to build and use they would never be used commercially. Even the plastic-forming devices are used only to produce models for presentations, never for mass production.

Returning to the topic, it is obvious that a decline in p2p will be very bad for the storage and broadband industry. Strangely, the broadband industry doesn't seem to realise that. Throttles, caps and blocks are commonly used to limit p2p use because of the huge demand it places on the ISP network. The usual solution to that would be to set up a transparent cache system, but there are legal issues with cacheing content that is probably not officially published on the internet, and even if the system is fully automated so noone knows precisely what its cacheing no ISP wants to risk the RIAA. There is a Dutch ISP which has a fasttrack cache and claims its a success through.

My own archives recently hit the 280G point, almost entirely thanks to broadband, so demand for storate would certinly fall. Not as much as you might expect through. One of the rules of computing is "Software grows to fill the available space". If drives get bigger, and DVD-roms more common, software grows to make better use of those resources. Games use more textures and more detail, movies in those games are compressed at a higher bitratre. Image color depths and resolutions are increased. Microsoft adds another few hundred unwanted space-intensive features noone wants to windows. A typical FPS game used to consume perhaps 40M of hard drive space. Now an FPS game, with its far better engines and higher detail, can easily use a gig. Demand for storage would slow without users downloading large files, but it would not cease growing altogether.

LPs were replaced with CDs for the simple reason that CDs are cheaper to mass produce. Makeing fans buy their music collection again was a side effect the industry certinly didn't mind, but not the objective. The next format change, which will be either DVD-audio or possibly (unlikely, but possibly) internet distribution will be motivated for fear of piracy only. Copy-protected CDs cannot work because the music is not encrypted. Sooner or later some executives are going to realise that and start the long switch to another format.