FROM THE LEFSETZ LETTER:
"I wasn't previously a believer, but I'm
coming around to the viewpoint
that Mel Karmazin is a BRILLIANT businessman.
Sirius launched after XM. Reception of its
signal is problematic. The
sound, to my ears, is clearly inferior to
XM's. Yet not only has
Sirius stolen XM's thunder, a betting man
would say that it's going to
continue to steal market share from XM and
quite possibly overtake the
Washington, D.C. giant.
Oh, Hugh Panero, XM's chief, was getting all
the accolades in the past.
For his brilliant strategy. Which was to
partner with automobile
companies. Installing XM-ready radios in a
plethora of new cars and
converting purchasers of these machines into
fans. It's really that simple.
The conversion rate is astronomical.
Satellite radio is like heroin.
Given a free taste for a few months, people
can't RESIST continued
payment, and enjoyment.
Sirius fucked up in this regard. Its auto
partnerships were not as
strong.
But those days are through. Since Mel has
taken over, Sirius has
strengthened its auto relationships to the
point where they're essentially
equal to those of XM. And, rather than the
dying GM, Sirius is
partnered with brands like BMW and
Mercedes-Benz. Watch MTV. Not everybody
may be able to AFFORD one of these German
cars, but they ASPIRE to them
and know everything about them.
But Mel really started to shine in the area
of programming.
Let's be clear. Sirius was behind the 8
Ball. Without the Howard
Stern deal, done before Mel joined the
company, Sirius would have probably
gone out of business. But, after that
lifesaving move, after Mel got
control of Sirius, he focused on
PROGRAMMING! He added SPICE to a dead
service. Now someone who listens to Sirius
knows that the music
playlists are tighter than a drumhead. But
this ultimately makes NO
difference. Because it's almost impossible
to A/B the two services. You buy
one and stick with it. People buy Sirius
for the sizzle, and STAY
THERE!
XM's music was LIGHT YEARS better than
Sirius'. This was its main
advantage. So what does Panero do? He
fucks it up. Coming from the cable
industry, where it's all about DISTRIBUTION
rather than content (that
was Hugh's end, the pipe, not the programs),
Hugh took the programming
reins from Lee Abrams and gave them to John
Zellner and other Infinity
hacks. Yes, hacks. These are the same
people who fucked up terrestrial
radio! And Zellner tightened playlists.
Blinking, trying to be more
like Sirius, without the PERSONALITIES, and
ultimately more like
terrestrial, which is a DEATH KNELL! The
ineptitude of Mr. Panero here is
staggering. Sure, John Malone made a lot of
money, and the fact you might
not know who he is proves the point, but
although rich today, he's been
marginalized. Ultimately, satellite radio
is about distribution AND
content and Mr. Panero has steered his ship
towards the rocks.
Believing that Sirius was overpaying for
talent, not seeing the wisdom
of Mr. Karmazin's strategy, that you sell
the sizzle, not the steak,
Mr. Panero let Sirius get ALL the talent.
And take NASCAR from XM too.
Then, freaking out that they didn't have
Martha Stewart, never mind
Jimmy Buffett, Eminem, Little Steven, et al,
Mr. Panero OVERPAYS for Oprah
Winfrey who will BARELY BE ON THE SERVICE!
How boneheaded is THAT?
Then it comes down to the SR50. Sirius'
device that records.
Unlike XM, Sirius admitted right from the
start that the SR50 is not a
portable radio. You don't carry it around
like a transistor and
listen. Rather, you record music while it's
in its dock and then carry it
around like an iPod. The reason this is
important is that XM's
originating product, the XM2Go, DIDN'T WORK!
Oh, certain features work. But I
know someone who purchased one to listen to
baseball. Only one
problem, you CAN'T! Not if you move the
unit. You CONSTANTLY lose reception.
To the point where he canceled his
subscription.
XM just launched a product to compete with
the SR50. The Pioneer Inno
XM2Go. It records too. But unlike the
SR50, XM maintains the Pioneer
unit is portable.
Read Walter Mossberg in today's "Wall Street
Journal"
(
http://ptech.wsj.com/solution.html). Bottom line, the Inno doesn't
work. It's just that simple. (And if you
don't know Mr. Mossberg's power
in the tech world, never mind on WALL
STREET, please don't make any
tech decisions at your company.) As Mr.
Mossberg says at the end of his
review, "...its spotty reception, confusing
software and monthly fee
make the Inno a no-go, except for hard-core
XM fans."
The Inno was supposed to be a BREAKTHROUGH!
Not only allowing you to
record and replay individual songs like the
SR50, but giving you the
ability to purchase said songs from Napster.
Didn't you see the endless
announcements in the press?
Who were those announcements FOR? Hopefully
not Wall Street. Any
investor knows that Napster is a turkey of a
stock. One whose carcass will
probably get so lean it can't even be served
as a meal. The PUBLIC?
As the cliche goes, they've been avoiding
Napster in droves. Not only
does it work in a less than stellar fashion,
as Mr. Mossberg states, it
DOESN'T GIVE THEM WHAT THEY WANT! OWNERSHIP!
So, you've got a device that doesn't work
giving almost nobody what
they want. GREAT business decision.
But it gets worse. The RIAA is pissed.
They don't like this
individual song/slice and dice
recording/playback ability. To the point
where
they just SUED XM. Now THAT'S great
publicity, THAT'S what you want. I
mean the RIAA is a misguided lobby about as
trustworthy as the
organization Jack Abramoff ran which is
pursuing legal strategies to a
practical problem as its member record
companies drive headlong towards
extinction. But why the tussle? Why is XM
making this stand? Why all the
bad publicity, financial AND consumer, when
almost NOBODY WANTS THE
PRODUCT!!!
Talk about misguided. Who the fuck is
RUNNING the XM ship?
This is where Mel Karmazin's infinite wisdom
comes in. He SETTLED with
the major labels re the SR50. Not because
he thinks they're right, and
under the present law it appears that the
SR50 and XM's Inno are
completely legal, but because he knows the
SR50 has a LIMITED MARKET! Why
battle on an irrelevant front? Shit, Mel
can see the BIG PICTURE! Not
only does HE avoid bad publicity, Sirius
shines when XM gets negative
press. FURTHERMORE, Mel didn't settle re
FUTURE products. If they can
ever get the technology on these devices to
the point where they work
and they're actually usable and desirable to
the average customer. Not
that that ever will be. Because people
don't want their music locked to
one device. And they don't want to rent.
Doesn't the iTunes/Napster
movie PROVE THIS?
Sirius has inferior hardware. On SO many
levels Sirius is inferior.
But XM keeps bungling the ball. Giving its
smaller competitor openings,
which Mel has driven Sirius right through.
Rumor has it that Lee Abrams is regaining
his power at XM. One can
only hope, DREAM, that this is true. Not
only for business reasons, but
for MUSIC reasons. For the first
half-decade, XM was early FM on
steroids. So good that you couldn't stop
talking about it. With such deep
playlists, compiled by professionals, nuking
any possibility of
competition by Net radio and other amateur
formats. You'd sit in your garage
continuing to listen, just wanting to hear
what they played next. The
fact that Mr. Panero squandered this
advantage is almost unfathomable.
Mel is old school. He's about advertising.
He's about personalities.
But really, it's a new world out there.
It's about the ultimate
content, not the branding. Panero should
steer the ship away from the rocks.
Stop chasing Sirius. And realize that HE'S
got the killer product.
Yes, XM should advertise/hype its MUSIC
CHANNELS! THAT'S WHAT PEOPLE
WANT!
It's a word of mouth world. And that word
is on steroids, being
Net-enabled. Make something good, and
everybody knows very quickly. Show
people that MUSIC lives on XM, and people
will flock to the service.
Maybe slowly. But you're building
something, you've got to STAND for
something. And now XM stands for almost
nothing. Baseball and..? It's so
simple. Talk radio made inroads on
terrestrial because music was so
BAD! Cede talk to terrestrial. Don't even
try to compete with Howard
Stern. Focus on MUSIC, which is the
broadest swath, which is what most
people want."