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A few Items from the Lefsetz Letter
Posted by OtherMike (Shmoo) in on March 2, 2006 at 1:06 PM



LES AND HOWARD

I just don't get it. I just don't understand how Les Moonves continues
to play into Howard's hand. I don't understand how Les can have such a
blind spot. The way to compete with Howard is to IGNORE HIM!

That's how Howard made it. On self-promotion. Oftentimes SHAMELESS
self-promotion. Hell, take a look at the 1992 MTV Video Music Awards for
instruction. Howard creates a train-wreck, the media covers it, people
tune into his show and...money is made.

But the act was getting old. Howard got divorced. People had seen the
movie. Howard did not dominate in every market like he once did.
Pulling a rabbit out of his hat, Howard decided to move to satellite. It
made the front page of the "New York Times", the diviner of what's
important to the news media at large. And the media has been covering the
story ever since.

But there's a dirty little secret. Now that Howard is ensconced at
Sirius. Nobody's listening.

Sirius has three million subscribers. And over a hundred channels.
Not to mention the fact that not everybody is tuned in 24/7. If the
press stopped covering the story. If Les never mentioned Howard's name
again. Howard would fade into the sunset. At least for the foreseeable
future. Until Sirius truly hits its stride subscriber-wise. And
whatever the service tops out at, it's still only a PORTION of the market,
since it's competing against the much-larger at this time XM.

What's the cliche? What if they held a parade and nobody came? If a
tree falls in a forest, does anybody hear it?

Make no mistake, CBS Radio is hurting in the wake of Howard's
departure. But only a SMALL FRACTION of his audience has migrated to Sirius.
The key is to HOOK THESE PEOPLE WITH SOMETHING NEW, not remind them of
what they once had, driving them into the arms of your competitor,
Sirius Radio.

Whoever came up with the idea of David Lee Roth as a Howard replacement
never spent an evening in a hotel room with him. Sure, DLR is a
tireless self-promoter. But the emphasis is on HIMSELF! That's why his
bandmates in Van Halen hated him. Howard bends over backward to heap
praise, or at least attention, on his supporting players, who love him.
It's a completely different ACT! David Lee Roth is/was a star. Howard
Stern is a schlemiel. And that's his appeal.

Now in L.A., Adam Carolla is someone we've all been exposed to. On
"Loveline", on cable TV. There's no SIZZLE! And, instead of showing
innovation, the highly intelligent Mr. Carolla is DUMBING HIMSELF AND HIS
SHOW DOWN! Whereas there's not a listener alive who doesn't think
Howard is smart. They look up to him. They take his advice on political
matters. Do you expect anybody's going to follow ADAM CAROLLA?

KLSX has Tom Leykis. His show plays on one note whereas Howard reigns
over a symphony, but Tom's got an intriguing act. Leykis 101 intrigues
and infuriates the same way Howard Stern does. CBS Radio needs
something akin to Leykis, who's new, to build their business back up.

It's like a sports franchise. You might win the Super Bowl, but then
Elway retires and you have to rebuild. It's a level playing field.
Those with smarts triumph.

Les Moonves is knowledgeable about television. But this potential
lawsuit re Stern makes me wonder about his insight into radio. His old
cohort, now running the other side of Viacom, Tom Freston, would never do
this. You never want to alienate talent. Especially when they have
other options. You want to WOO talent. Sharon Osbourne fucked with MTV
in a way nobody else ever has. Did you see Tom carping in the press
that Sharon had never signed the original contract and screwed him?

It's not too late Les. Howard's just begun. The Street is already
forgiving you for CBS Radio's poor performance. Use this respite to
rebuild. Come up with something left field, like you did with "Survivor".
Take a chance on a renegade, who can capture the public's imagination.
Rather than focusing on what you've lost and trying to rebuild with a
product that's a shadow of what you once had.

As for Howard... If you're not listening to Sirius, you've got no idea
how good he is, as good, if not better, than ever. But almost nobody
knows this, almost nobody talks about his show anymore, because as
stated earlier, almost nobody HEARS IT! I'd say this is problematic for
Howard, but he's gone on record that escaping the FCC was enough, he
doesn't need everybody listening (not that I wholly believe that.) But
that's Howard's plight. Terrestrial radio is a different ball game. They
hold the cards. They own the market share. They own the dominant
incompatible format, just like Apple does with the iPod. The key is to
CAPITALIZE ON IT! Not to complain about what you once had or what your
competitors are doing.

Shit, if CBS just said it wished Howard good luck. And focused all its
press on its new talent. There would be no story. The furor would die
down. They'd have room to breathe. CBS now has the ADVANTAGE, they
mustn't SQUANDER IT!

(In the spirit of full disclosure, I have a radio show on KLSX from
9-11 every Sunday night. And, ultimately, Les Moonves signs my checks.)
====================================================

Hits/Warner Music Group

Lyor. Please do us a favor and write Dennis and Lenny a check. Write
it off as a charitable donation. Relief from the constant bombardment
of our eyeballs and sensibilities on hitsdailydouble.com.

I hope that hitsdailydouble.com is one of your bookmarked sites. And
that you visit it at least twice a day. "Billboard" delivers a cleansed
version of the news. Whereas the Dennis and Lenny site will deliver
every good rumor, every good fact they can lay their hands on.
Unfortunately, that's not all they deliver. You see, they don't seem to care
that much about providing a service to the viewers at large, they most
desire money. Yes, they want to get paid. As handsomely as they have
been for the past fifteen years. Well, up until the last couple, when
the business crashed.

Dennis and Lenny are powerful guys. And brilliant too. They saw the
handwriting on the wall. Rather than risk prosecution as independent
record promoters they created a magazine. And charged their clients for
ads. And for this payment, the pair delivered radio promotion, or so
they said.

But then the toxic twins got even smarter. What if they INFILTRATED
the record companies. Wouldn't that make them very powerful? Almost as
powerful as the PRESIDENTS of said labels? Dennis and Lenny started
brokering gigs. In a fluid business, where people are constantly getting
fired and hired, Dennis and Lenny created the equivalent of an
employment agency. They got you a gig. Or found you a guy, sometimes even one
under contract. For this, quite understandably, they expected tribute.
They expected a commitment. In dollars. Yes, seemingly all of the
promo men in the business were beholden to the powerful pair, and
therefore they budgeted mucho dinero to be paid to them. Labels had contracts.
And if you paid, you got good ink. And if not, well, if you were
mentioned at all, it was negatively.

Then the bottom fell out. Labels started consolidating. People were
laid off. Many of the "Hits"-placed employees lost their gigs. Still,
it wasn't until financials turned really bad that labels stopped paying
"Hits". And, the twins didn't like it.

God, no one likes losing his job. Can I tell you about all the
fiftysomething promotion men who can't get another gig and ended up in divorce
court, if not bankruptcy? Used to be you could get a gig in the video
business. But those days are gone. And I'm not sure the real estate
ranks have room for another ex-promo man. But Dennis and Lenny possess
one thing these laid off employees don't. A voice. And they're
utilizing it. Like screaming babies they're kicking and whining and trying
to manipulate those in a changed world to play by the old rules.

Oh, not that Dennis and Lenny aren't trying to survive on their own
terms. They're now managers. You can tell by the constant hype for
Hoobastank and Fall Out Boy on their site. And that's bad enough, but
ultimately laughable. But the constant assault on the Warner Music Group is
unconscionable.

Then again, what Edgar Bronfman and Thomas H. Lee have done to the
Warner Music Group is unconscionable. They've extracted their investment
and many more millions and left the enterprise saddled with debt. Jeff
Kwatinetz wanted his share, that could be why he made a stink with
Linkin Park just before the IPO. And Dennis and Lenny want their share.
But, unlike Kwatinetz, they've got no chips to cash in. So, they've
just got a constant public defamation campaign on their site. Poking fun
at Edgar, Lyor and all their employees. When the bottom line is,
there's just not money to pay them. It's not in the budget. Lyor can't see
exactly what Dennis and Lenny can do for him other than stop writing
this shit.

Oh, Lyor used to play ball. In the IDJ days. But shit happens, things
change. Warner is a public company. It just can't justify paying for
what appears to be nothing. What with having settled with Spitzer.

Yet, none of this stops Dennis and Lenny. It's endless.

It's kind of like the labels themselves. Carping at their customers
regarding a changed landscape. Why are they acquiring tracks, why aren't
they buying albums on CD? Why can't things be the way they used to be?

The labels are just a couple of years and a couple of changes behind
Dennis and Lenny. They're heading for extinction too. But rather than
try to squeeze blood from a stone, why can't Dennis and Lenny find a new
way to get paid. Look at Charles Koppelman. He didn't rail against
EMI endlessly after he was blown out. He tried to be a financial whiz
with a Bowie Bonds operation. And when that didn't pan out, he sidled up
to Martha Stewart. Hell, he was even featured in "Newsweek". Why
can't Dennis and Lenny find a new venture? And leave us left in the music
business alone, without the constant harangue of anti-WMG bullshit.
They've got a head start on the remaining major label executives.
They're smarter than most of them. And richer too. Which is testament to
their high level of intelligence.

Kallman told me he's safe. Lyor hasn't got the budget. And Atlantic
is cold. Do you ask for money when someone's broke? Let's leave the
Warner Music Group alone to find its own way. And, if Edgar truly is
contemplating pulling up stakes in Burbank, and moving Warner Brothers
Records to the Big Apple, that leaves a giant hole here on the west coast,
which maybe these two can fill, if they're desirous of staying in the
business.

More change is afoot at Warner. It's all about the bottom line. And
Atlantic is in trouble. But whatever happens, even if Julie Greenwald
ascends to the top, it's just a sideshow. The real action isn't in this
game anymore. Power has shifted to the artists, and those who know
this.

========================

Victory Tactics

Tony Brummel has gone from hero to zero in my book.

Here was a guy trying to do it a different way. Signing acts the
majors weren't interested in and marketing them without radio. We applaud
that. But concomitant with a bit of success Mr. Brummel has come out of
the hole from which he resides to reveal himself to be a paranoid
megalomaniac who believes the rules don't apply to him.

I blame Bill Clinton. For lying about getting a hummer. Oh, he parsed
the words pretty good, but if the President of the United States lies
under oath, essentially saying the rules don't apply to him, what
message does this send to the struggling man on the street?

Or maybe it was Reagan. Who ushered in the winner take all game we now
find being played in America. It's no longer about helping your
brother but becoming so fucking RICH that you don't even have to ENCOUNTER
your brother. Even though it's your brother coughing up the dough for
you to live your zillion dollar lifestyle.

We don't need a top cop, we need a referee. To blow the whistle on
George Bush. And miscreants like Tony Brummel. I mean is it that hard to
play by the RULES?

One knows Tony is delusional because of the inane indie versus major
battle he's cooked up. No one cares. Other than his buddies trumpeting
the match on hitsdailydouble. Certainly the public doesn't care. A
record's a record. Good is important. Distributor? Label? That's
almost irrelevant. That's like worrying about who makes the alternator for
your automobile. Does the car look good? Does it go fast? That's all
people care about.

Make no mistake, we're experiencing a music revolution. The means of
production AND distribution are in the hands of the artists. But this
has nothing to do with Tony Brummel. Tony Brummel is just a
money-hungry businessman looking for respect from those richer and more famous
than he. Victory Records isn't about changing paradigms as much as giving
Mr. Brummel a platform from which he can spout his inane philosophies.
His success means people who would normally want nothing to do with him
take his phone calls. He's got a spot on the map. And he LOVES it.
Yet his dementia is evidenced by the lack of an end game. What IF indie
wins? Will Hawthorne Heights change the face of pop culture? Is it
about money? Mr. Brummel essentially sold his label once, yet pulled it
back. And despite endless meetings he seems to have no desire to sell
it again. Even Clive Calder sold. But Tony Brummel doesn't want to
sell. For then, he'll be irrelevant. No one will listen to his inane
ramblings.

Today Tony Brummel instructed his minions to behave in a fashion that
I'm not sure even Morris Levy would risk. Today Tony Brummel wasn't
satisfied with selling his wares in a retail store to anybody who desired
them, rather he needed to PREVENT CUSTOMERS from buying OTHER records!

Does Tony really think that IDJ is worried about him? Worried about
Hawthorne Heights? Really gives a shit?

Hell, we've been hearing about it for months. How Hawthorne Heights is
going to enter the chart at number one. And then Ne-Yo came on the
scene to rain on Tony's parade. God, real music aficionados know it's not
about the first week, but the LONG HAUL! Does it REALLY matter if
you're number one or two or ten? If you're selling a lot of records? To
Tony it does.

Tony says he's only doing it for his artists.

Well, I'd like to hear how he explains to his charges how they're not
getting ANY iTunes revenue because he's in a personal battle with Apple.
He's denying them heat and money because HE'S on a vendetta. And all
those TV commercials. My understanding is they're 100% recoupable from
artist royalties. I ask you, WHERE IS THE NEW SCHOOL HERE?

One thing we know for sure. Tony Brummel will eventually get cold, and
he will be forgotten. Because EVERYBODY gets cold sooner or later.
I'd like to believe the following missive will put a stain on his career,
make him an untouchable, but the business is rife with those who've
pulled shenanigans. Yet, none quite so bold. And, even if they did, WHO
WOULD BE STUPID ENOUGH TO PUT THEM IN WRITING!!

_____________________________________________

(Below is a message that was sent out to the Hawthorne Heights myspace
members and street team over the weekend to try and boost sales for the
release this week. The second section is another email that was sent
out today to ALL Victory Records street teams. If you haven't got time
for the pain, just scroll down to the VERY END and read the last couple
of paragraphs. They'll make the hair on your neck rise.)

Feb 27, 2006

Tomorrow, our second album, "If Only You Were Lonely" will be in
stores. We are reaching out to you because Hawthorne Heights can use your
help. We need you, your friends and anyone else you know that likes ROCK
music to buy our album tomorrow. The only reason we are able to be a
band is because of your support. Without you we would not be able to do
what we do.

You buying our album tomorrow has much greater meaning than simply
supporting Hawthorne Heights. ROCK music needs your support. Our society
and culture has put rock music on the backburner. If our album can debut
at #1 all of us will have taken ROCK music back to the top of the
charts where it belongs. You might ask, how has ROCK been put on the
backburner? A current example is an artist that we are up against called
Ne-Yo. Many people are saying that Ne-Yo is going to outsell us because
Ne-Yo has had a tremendous amount of over the top, mainstream media
coverage. His album will be in stores tomorrow. Radio has played his single
160,000 times. Our single has been played 3,800 times. We know that does
not seem possible but it is the truth. Ne-Yo is on a major label.
Hawthorne Heights is on an independent label.

ROCK music needs to win tomorrow.

Independent needs to beat Major tomorrow. If all of you take action we
can create history. The mainstream media may not choose to fully
embrace this ROCK band from Dayton, Ohio but all of you have. No one can take
that away from us. It cannot be bought because it comes from the heart.
That is what makes us different. Your support means everything to us
and is the most valuable thing that we have. You are the people that we
depend on. This is as much about you as it is about us. You hear our
voices every night. Now, we need to hear yours. You see us at our merch
table every night. We need to see you in the stores tomorrow. We cannot
come out on top without you. Passion and music with real meaning has a
chance to beat out what the media forces down our throats. No one
expects us to win. We need to prove them wrong. They underestimate us. Please
help us create history tomorrow. This is a `call to arms', a `battle
cry', not just for Hawthorne Heights but for all of the other great ROCK
bands and independent labels that we all love. All of us deserve this
and it is something that we can do together.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

March 1, 2006

Happy Hawthorne Heights day everyone - street date has finally arrived!

It all comes down to the next six days and maximizing our sales at as
many stores as possible. We are neck-and-neck with this Ne-yo character
on Universal and we need everyone out there tilting the tide in our
favor. Our projected numbers for first week sales are about even so we
really need to make every unit count if we want to win.

We do this first by selling more Hawthorne Heights, hitting as many
stores as possible, making sure Hawthorne Heights stock is in the front
and very visible in every store we visit. Get inside, do what
you need to do, and move on to the next store. Move Hawthorne Heights
into as many key positions as you can. Remember there are two covers so
not only put them together, put them in different places. HH should
have spots in all the new release racks toward the front of the store but
we can always increase our presence by dropping a few in another
displays.

If you don't see our product on display at the front of the store,
particularly later in the week, then go to the bin and move what you
can. There are a lot of stores that are not as on top of this as they
should be, especially something as hot as Hawthorne Heights, so we
need to give these people all the help they can get.

Also look for HH in the areas where stores keep overstock. Sometimes
this is below the bins or on the top of the rack. If you find any
CDs,particularly under the bins, try to move those out first to the otherareas
of the store.

On the off chance you find a store that doesn't have any copies of the
new Hawthorne, find a clerk and ask him why they don't have it. If it's
sold out, find out when they have more coming in. If it's showing as in
stock, let him know that you can't find it so he knows to order more.

Here is a list of the best chain stores to go to:

Best Buy

Target

Wal Mart

FYE

Coconuts

Wherehouse

Circuit City

Sam's Club

K Mart

Sam Goody

Virgin Borders

Borders

Barnes & Noble

Fred Meyer

Hastings

Meijer

As for Ne-yo, the name of the game is to decrease the chances of a sale
here. If you were to pick up handful of Ne-yo CDs, as if you
were about to buy them, but then changed your mind and didn't bother to
put them back in the same place, that would work. Even though this
record will be heavily stocked and you might not be able to move all the
stock, just relocating a handful creates issues: Even though the store
will appear to be out of stock, the computer will see it as in stock and
not re-order the title once it sells down and then Ne-Yo will lose a
few sales later in the week

This is most important in stores were we are competing with Ne-yo,
which is in the big chains that sell pop and urban product. The stores
listed above are in the order you should hit them up.

The main thing is to keep the pressure up all week. First day sales
are important but keeping our sales going and having a strong weekend
are equally important to grabbing the #1 slot that belongs to us.

Please be sure to email me this week and let me know which stores you
have gone to and worked your magic at.

Thanks everyone,

Abby

Victory at all costs, Victory in spite of all terror, Victory however
long and hard the road may be; for without Victory, there is no
survival.



User Comments

DMemberignorantslut
Date: March 2, 2006 @ 7:23 PM
Well at lest this has something to do with music unlike the bullcrap leflaw is always trying to post all the time that mean nothing to anybody else but him..

Like we really care what happens to George Michaels.....When was he thought of as an Indie artist?

:-) (Smile)
DMemberstilltrying
Date: March 2, 2006 @ 10:57 PM
HH need's to put as much effort into making a great cd's worth of music then all this other crap about street teams trying to hide the other guy's cd wouldn't be important!!!!! God what these people will do for a sale!!!!!!!
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